Previous Trading Session (September 30, 2026):
- IHSG closed lower by 0.83% at 6,071.14.
- Rupiah strengthened by 0.50% to 17,870/USD.
Indonesia’s financial markets closed mixed on Wednesday, with the IHSG declining while the Rupiah strengthened against the US Dollar. The Rupiah’s appreciation was supported by global sentiment, including growing expectations of a potential peace agreement between Iran and the United States, softer oil prices, and a decline in the US Dollar Index.
On the domestic front, Indonesia’s manufacturing activity, as reflected by the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, rose to 52.4, indicating that manufacturing activity remained in expansionary territory. This was an improvement from the previous reading of 49.8 and could provide positive sentiment for the Rupiah.
Today, market participants will closely monitor the release of several domestic economic indicators, including the August trade balance and September inflation data. The July trade balance recorded a surplus, although the surplus was lower than in the previous period. Meanwhile, headline inflation is projected to increase to 3.3% YoY, from 3.19% previously. Core inflation is also expected to rise to 3.0% YoY, compared with 2.92% previously.
A well-contained inflation environment would provide greater room for Bank Indonesia to pursue monetary policy easing, while higher-than-expected inflation could limit such flexibility.
Global
US equity markets closed mixed in the previous trading session. The S&P 500 declined by 0.25%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.86%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.24%.
Higher 10-year US Treasury yields, rising above 5.3%, weighed on market sentiment despite softer-than-expected PCE inflation, as investors continued to await labor-market data for further signals regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
US-Iran diplomatic efforts resumed after Iran received Washington’s response regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose 0.81% to USD 90.10 per barrel, while Brent crude declined 5.15% to USD 97.66 per barrel, supported by the resumption of Middle Eastern oil flows and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Nevertheless, unresolved negotiations continue to pose supply-side risks, while markets await the OPEC+ decision on November production quotas.
The DXY (US Dollar Index) edged up 0.08% to 101.45 despite softer PCE inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged in October. Resilient US economic growth, consumer spending, and labor-market conditions continue to support the USD. However, softer inflation has limited further USD appreciation.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that US inflation remains too high, despite August PCE inflation coming in below expectations. His comments indicate that the Federal Reserve may continue to adopt a cautious approach toward monetary easing. Resilient economic activity and labor-market conditions could keep the possibility of further rate adjustments open.
Market participants will also focus on several economic indicators. September ADP Employment Change increased to 90K, from a revised 36K, exceeding the market expectation of 70K.
Meanwhile, August core inflation came in below expectations at 0.2% MoM and 3.0% YoY, while headline inflation stood at 0.3% MoM and 3.4% YoY.
US Q2 2026 GDP growth was revised upward to 2.2%, from 2.1%, exceeding the market expectation of 1.5%.
Stronger employment and GDP growth could provide support for the USD, while softer inflation could limit the extent of USD appreciation.
Tonight, the market will monitor the release of weekly US jobless claims, which are expected to increase to 200K from 197K, as well as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to rise to 55.0 from 54.6. Higher jobless claims could indicate some moderation in labor demand, while stronger manufacturing activity would point to continued resilience in the US economy.
Market Reference
Data sources: CNBC Indonesia, Refinitiv, Trading Economics, and Bank Indonesia website.
NDF as of 08:45: 17,927–17,935
USD/IDR Indicative Range Today: 17,870–17,970
Bank Indonesia Monetary Indicators:
| BI Rate | 5.75% | September 23, 2026 |
| CPI Inflation (YoY) | 3.19% | August 31, 2026 |
| Foreign Exchange Reserves | USD 146.508 billion | August 31, 2026 |
| Closing USD/IDR | 17,870 | September 30, 2026 |
| Closing JPY/IDR | 113.89 | September 30, 2026 |
| Closing SGD/IDR | 13,996 | September 30, 2026 |
CCY BN & TT JTrust Bank:
Currencies Available for Transactions:
| 1 | US Dollar (USD) |
| 2 | Singapore Dollar (SGD) |
| 3 | Japanese Yen (JPY) |
| 4 | Euro (EUR) |
| 5 | Australian Dollar (AUD) |
| 6 | British Pound Sterling (GBP) |
| 7 | Chinese Yuan (CNY) |
| 8 | New Zealand Dollar (NZD) |
| 9 | Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) |
| 10 | Korean Won (KRW) |
Foreign Exchange Transaction Requirements Against Rupiah:
- For foreign exchange transactions against Rupiah with an amount equal to or below (≤) the applicable threshold, customers are required to provide a Statement Letter for transactions below the threshold and a copy of valid identification.
- For foreign exchange transactions against Rupiah exceeding (>) the applicable threshold, customers are required to provide a Statement Letter for transactions above the threshold, a copy of the underlying transaction documents, Taxpayer Identification Number (NPWP), and valid identification.
Contact J Trust Bank Indonesia Treasury Sales:
(021) 2926-1114 (hunting)
- Bintang: 0812 2650 949
- Hanif: 0811 8762 001
- Naomi: 0877 0633 1585
- Ade: 0821 6939 7410
Disclaimer:
Although the information contained herein has been prepared by PT Bank JTrust Indonesia Tbk (J Trust Bank) based on sources believed to be reliable, J Trust Bank makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and shall not be responsible for any errors or omissions.
Accordingly, the information provided herein does not constitute a guarantee of future performance and should not be relied upon as such. All information contained herein is subject to change without prior notice.
No part of this information may be reproduced in any form without the prior written consent of J Trust Bank.
